This so reminds me of the GOP red wave that was coming for all liberals in 2022. The GOP made all these wild claims that they were coming for liberals and were going to destroy them, but at the end of the day the GOP lost with a whimper. There was no red wave, and no one was coming for liberals. It was all talk and no action behind it. In a way the GOP lives off of polls that are almost always wrong.

The GOP pay for these polls to show their fat cat donors that they are going to win or are winning or that their messaging is working etc. But when it comes to voting, they are always mistaken, and the blame will go to the polls who were wrong wrong, wrong. Then they will blast the polling firms for producing the polls they paid for, and then walk away from them until the next election cycle where they will start all over doing the exact same things as they did before.

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The Republican Party appears to be following the playbook of those storied lemmings that rush to the edge of the cliff and throw themselves off in a suicidal frenzy.

You’d think that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) would have warned his party that the lemming myth was a misleading invention of the Disney Company, not to be copied. Yet, as the 2024 elections approach, the GOP is doubling down on positions that will cause them great heartache on election day.

The main problem for most of the party’s presidential contenders is sheer cowardice. Other than former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Trump’s top-tier opponents cannot muster the courage to take him on, to make the case that he is a clear and present danger to American democracy, as well as the future of the Republican Party. They merely tiptoe around Trump, while making throw-away comments about the “weaponization of government.” Such comments trivialize Trump’s criminal conduct, strengthening his grip on the GOP base.

The fact is that Trump simply can’t and won’t win another term. He is wrong on the issues, he has no vision for a second term other than trying to establish an autocracy, and he will likely be convicted in one or more of the criminal cases that are currently in the works. The majority of American voters are still swayed by important issues, and Trump is wrong on most of them. Abortion extremism and gun safety will be major issues in 2024. Neither issue favors Trump and down-ballot Republicans.

Abortion is particularly tricky for Republicans because they have doubled down on tighter restrictions, even though a majority of Americans disfavor that position. Trump has equivocated on abortion, claiming credit for the overturning of Roe v. Wade but cautioning Republicans against supporting further restrictions.

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who seems to be gaining some support against Trump, has bravely stepped forward to oppose granting abortions “up to 52 weeks.” Perhaps he could benefit from studying a blue-state biology textbook.

Another issue has surfaced that will loom large in the 2024 elections — our increasingly dangerous climate. In past years, Republican climate deniers were able to convince enough voters that global warming was not a looming disaster. They pointed to snowstorms as proof that climate scientists were wrong — a bona fide snow job. With the catastrophic weather that has been wreaking death and destruction across the U.S. and around the globe this year, that will no longer work to assuage the electorate.

And, as they say, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

Tornadoes have become more widespread across the country and more destructive. Biblical downpours have ravaged TexasCaliforniaVermont and a host of other statesHistorically high temperatures are plaguing a great portion of the country. This issue will likely have a major influence on the 2024 elections because the heat next year, as one scientist predicted, “will probably leap to a whole new level.” If that turns out to be the case, voter demand to combat global warming will also leap to a whole new level.

Each of these issues will have an incremental effect on Trump’s election chances if he turns out to be the Republican presidential candidate next year. With the reluctance of his opponents to take him on, it is likely that he will be selected to run against President Biden. He will lose that election. The result will be more anti-Trump than pro-Biden.

Biden has done a reasonably good job but has had trouble selling his record. And his age, magnified by a slight speech impediment, has allowed conservative media to paint an unfavorable picture of his performance in office.

In the event, however, that Trump’s problems continue to mount and one of his opponents manages to find the courage to actually run against him, the Republicans will still have a heartbreaking election. If Trump loses his quest for the nomination, it is extremely unlikely that he will retire from the stage to lick his wounds. He has demonstrated exactly what he would do — loudly claim election fraud and act as a spoiler for whoever receives the nomination.

Trump has demonstrated time and again that he has no loyalty to the Republican Party. His loyalty is strictly limited to Donald Trump, the party be damned if its fortunes conflict with his.

Any late-blooming GOP candidate will be burdened by Trump’s conniptions, a dearth of funding, Biden’s favorable track record and concerns about unpopular Republican positions on abortion, guns, climate and a myriad of meritless culture war issues.

I believe Republicans will lose the presidency by a wide margin, whoever the party’s candidate might be, the Democrats will end up with a House majority of at least 20 members and the Senate majority could go either way by one or two members.

In defense of this forecast, I’d point to my Sept. 5 prediction last year that the off-year election would produce 48 GOP senators and a razor-thin margin, either way, in the House. I was off by one senator because it did not seem conceivable to me that Wisconsin voters would reelect Sen. Ron Johnson. It was a minor miscalculation. This prediction will be just as close.


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